2. Sustainability at a Crossroads
The theme of sustainability ran throughout the event. Varying statistics showed that consumers not only believe in making environmentally conscious choices but in some cases are willing to pay more for sustainable options. It is high time that the industry responds with more action and fewer platitudes. But will they? Next year companies will have to decide, are they going to act or just let someone else do it?
Those most passionate beseeched the industry to pay attention to sustainability, or else. The loudest voice came from Hopper founder and CEO Fred Lalonde, whose company plants trees for each trip to offset CO2 emissions (with 13 million trees already in the ground). “I am basically challenging all the CEOs of the other companies… start offsetting all the CO2 of your customers right now, off your P&L.” It’s an “emergency”, he implored, so “we have to stop screwing around and get it done.” But it’s still difficult to convince the rest of the travel industry to act. While Expedia CEO Peter Kern feels “pressure to do more, we’d like to do more,” he also cites too much “greenwashing” around ESG. Until there is “auditable, real and definable” data around actions and results, the industry won’t take serious action, adding it likely will come from government regulators instead, as we see in Europe.
Executive Interview: The Next Big Thing. Fred Lalonde, CEO & Co-Founder, Hopper. Interviewer: Mitra Sorrells, Editor In Chief, PhocusWire.
And in a sobering observation, Futurist Rohit Talwar said, “There is no one in the world looking at climate change in any depth who believes now the current actions we’re taking are going to get us anywhere closer to net zero.” He advises companies who aren’t “all in” to at least plan a strategy just in case it (reversing climate change) doesn’t happen.
Networking
3. Blockchain, Web3, NFT, Metaverse – Follow the Leader
Perhaps the most controversial topics are the impact of new technologies such as blockchain, web3, the metaverse, and NFTs on the future of travel. If you are a futurist like Talwar, you believe that travel companies need to pay attention or fall behind. Phocuswright senior technology analyst Norm Rose likened industry skepticism to these technologies to similar doubts surrounding e-commerce 20+ years ago – and look what happened. Keep your eyes and ears open! As for blockchain, Rose’s panel featured three companies already using the technology in one way or another – Dtravel, Blockskye and Arise Travel.
Executive Panel: Blockchain - Game Changer or Bust? Panelists Brook Armstrong, Co-CEO, Co-Founder, Blockskye. Nadim El Manawy, CEO, Arise Travel. Cynthia Huang, Head of Demand Growth, Dtravel. Moderator: Norm Rose, Senior Technology and Corporate Market Analyst, Phocuswright.
Others don’t want to be forced into adopting unproven technologies when there is so much more work to be done operationally. In other words, let’s fix what’s still broken, before we invest in what’s next. What this means is that companies won’t jump in feet first just to try things out [recent losses by Meta (Facebook) and FTX (crypto) raised a red flag]. Overall, the industry strategy is to learn, ask questions, and put new technologies into future plans. When it comes to web3, crypto and blockchain, perhaps being a trailblazer is not that important. “Some of these technologies in due time will be relevant,” said Damien Scokin, CEO of Despegar.com, who is a “firm believer in NFTs for air tickets.” But he agreed with Mathias Hedlund, CEO of Etraveli Group, to “choose not to be first.” “Focus on the simple stuff and be more pragmatic,” Hedlund said. Perhaps Steve Hafner, Kayak founder and CEO, said it best. “Anything you don’t understand, you shouldn’t invest in.”
Executive Interview: Disrupting Disruption. Steve Hafner, CEO, KAYAK. Interviewer: Lorraine Sileo, Founder, Phocuswright Research and Senior Analyst, Phocuswright.
Obviously, the industry is not ready to go full throttle into web3 and the like, considering its other priorities. But everyone is watching – and someone, anyone, can take the lead. “This is the future we’re talking about,” implored Rose. “And it’s happening now.”
Executive Panel: Street Talk. Panelists: Naved Khan, Sr. Analyst, Truist Securities. Mark Mahaney, Senior Managing Director, Evercore. Lloyd Walmsley, Managing Director, UBS. Moderator: Charuta Fadnis, SVP, Research and Product Strategy, Phocuswright.
4. Stop Comparing to 2019
Let’s stop comparing the health of the industry to 2019. First, many segments (e.g, air, hotel) are already past that. And secondly, some effects from the pandemic are here to stay. That means, there will be less normalizing, and more record-breaking.
If travelers are hoping that rising travel prices will subside in 2023, forget it. According to the experts, higher prices are here to stay, mostly because there is no evidence of a significant dip in demand AND because the labor shortage is not improving fast enough. Assuming continued supply shortages (e.g., airplane parts), demand will likely exceed supply into 2023 and perhaps later. Travelers will have to make concessions (buy cheaper?) or do without other extras in their lives to make travel happen.
Even so, prices will have to moderate, even if they don’t fall back to 2019. ADRs are already at all-time highs – how much farther can they go? But Mahaney said ADRs are expected to stay strong, even with recessionary pressures. Lloyd Walmsley, managing director of UBS, agrees, especially as broader inflation raises all prices, regardless of demand. “I don’t think we are going back to where we were in 2019 on prices.” In other words, 2019 is no longer the bellwether of “normal,” – too many extraordinary forces are at play to even compare.
Executive Panel: Street Talk. Panelists: Naved Khan, Sr. Analyst, Truist Securities. Mark Mahaney, Senior Managing Director, Evercore. Lloyd Walmsley, Managing Director, UBS. Moderator: Charuta Fadnis, SVP, Research and Product Strategy, Phocuswright.
